Climate change consequences for differential adult survival and the mating system of a temperate breeding shorebird

Abstract Managing for the effects of climate change on species whose populations are currently imperiled requires detailed knowledge relationship between their demographic rates and variables. We sought this information West Coast breeding population snowy plover ( Charadrius nivosus ), which was federally listed as threatened in 1993 due to substantial declines numbers plovers along coast number sites occupied breeding. Snowy employ a serially polygamous system male typically tends chicks independence. This unusual is favored by male‐biased sex ratios local populations. As part multispecies study effect growth, we used mark–capture models examine drivers adult survival 1219 banded at Monterey Bay over 38 years known overwinter surrounding north‐central California outer coast. Nonclimate variables, including unmeasured annual mortality risks (e.g., predator abundance), were primary factors affecting survival. However, there evidence that cold weather, particularly extended snaps with daily low temperatures below 2°C high 10°C, decreases Exceptionally winters had strong female plovers, contributing ratios. Future winter projected be generally warmer fewer shorter snaps. Reduced from weather may mitigate other threats faced such anthropogenically enhanced populations, habitat loss, accelerated sea level rise, while altering ratio potentially shifting evolutionary landscape maintaining plover's system.